I'm Dan Sheehan, a wealth advisor / financial planner based in Charlotte, NC. I work with high earners, families, and business owners on the things that actually move the needle over a lifetime: building the plan, managing the portfolio, and getting the tax picture right. Most of my clients came to me knowing they were doing well but suspecting they were leaving something on the table. Usually they were. This newsletter is where I share the thinking behind that work, one topic at a time.
Good morning investors.
Before we get to markets, it's the first day of the NFL season, so congrats to all who celebrate. A Super Bowl rematch to open things off, which is not a bad way to start.
Now to a market that's less fun. Oil cracked $100. Brent pushed above the mark overnight for the first time since July, with WTI just behind near $95, as the US-Iran conflict keeps threatening Middle East supply. That's the story driving everything this morning, the same chain I keep coming back to. Higher crude lifts inflation fears, those fears push yields up, and the whole thing weighs on stocks.
Yesterday the Dow fell 1.2%, its worst day in three weeks, with the S&P falling 0.6% and the Nasdaq 0.3%, as oil climbed and the 10-year briefly topped 4.8%. Canada’s retaliatory tariffs adding to the mood didn’t help. Futures are slightly lower again this morning. It’s a quiet day for data and earnings, with the real events later in the week, PPI Thursday and the CPI Friday, plus Oracle after the close tomorrow.
Goldman raised its oil targets and flagged that $120 is on the table if the disruptions keep spreading, with pressure building on the Red Sea and Persian Gulf fronts on top of the unresolved Hormuz situation.
The Money and Power Behind the Buildout
While oil dominates the tape, a set of announcements this morning shows how relentlessly the AI buildout keeps moving, and more to the point how it's being funded and powered. Google is putting at least $15 billion into AI infrastructure in Finland over two years and signed its first nuclear power deal outside the US, a 22-year agreement for up to half the output of a Finnish nuclear plant. Amazon sold sterling bonds for the first time, part of a push by the hyperscalers to find new sources of money for all this spending. And OpenAI is deepening its work with Samsung on its own chips.
Two threads run through this. The first is power. Google locking up nuclear output for 22 years tells you the constraint on AI is increasingly electricity, not just chips, and the companies building it are securing energy the way they secure silicon, in enormous long dated contracts. That's the physical layer I keep pointing to, now extending into the grid itself. The second is financing. Amazon reaching into the sterling market for the first time is a small example of a bigger pattern, the hyperscalers issuing record amounts of debt worldwide to fund the buildout, competing with governments for capital and adding to the pressure on yields I keep flagging. It's also exactly why Oracle tomorrow matters so much. Oracle is the market's proxy for whether this debt-funded buildout is sound, and these deals are the wider version of the same question. The demand and the ambition are real. The financing behind them is what I'm watching.
Apple's Big Day
Apple holds its iPhone event today, and it’s a notable one with John Ternus taking the keynote stage for the first time as CEO, and he’s expected to unveil Apple’s first foldable iPhone, a passport style design that may carry a $2,000 price tag. The iPhone 18 Pro and a new Apple Watch are likely too.
The hardware isn’t really the point though. Wall Street is still waiting on Apple’s AI story, and specifically what an upgraded Siri actually delivers. Apple has been the laggard among the big names on AI, and the question is whether it can open its famous walled garden to AI agents and tools that have mostly developed outside Cupertino. Ternus also has to introduce himself. Tim Cook was the supply chain operator and diplomat. What Ternus is remains to be seen, and for a company this dependent on its brand, first impressions carry weight. A slick foldable and a smarter Siri would help. What the market wants most is a sense of what comes next.
Still No Hike, in My View
I continue to expect no hike this month. If we did get one, I’d expect a month or so of volatility and some selling, but it wouldn’t be bad for the market over the long term. I just don’t believe Warsh pulls the trigger in September. The market has it priced at around 60% for a hold now, which has come down as the week’s Fed commentary turned less hawkish, and Friday’s CPI is what settles it. A cool number takes the pressure off. A hot one, with oil now over $100 feeding straight into it, makes my call harder to hold.
A Planning Reminder
With little to react to today, one thing worth repeating. Your portfolio should be driven by your financial plan, not the other way around. It's easy in a week like this, with oil spiking and yields climbing and a Fed decision looming, to feel like you should be doing something with your holdings. For most people the right answer is that the plan already accounts for weeks like this. The mix of what you own, how much risk you carry, how much sits in ballast like gold or bonds, all of it should flow from your goals, your timeline, and what you need the money to do, rather than from the headline of the day. When the portfolio is built around the plan, a volatile stretch is something you've prepared for rather than something you react to. If you're not sure yours is set up that way, that's the conversation worth having.
Final Thought
Oil over $100 is the thing to watch, because it feeds the inflation and yield pressures that have defined the month and lands right before the CPI that decides the Fed meeting. September is doing what September does.
My read holds that the Fed doesn't hike, even with oil complicating the inflation picture and the odds where they are. I keep the closest watch on the 10-year and that 5% level, gold stays on as ballast and caught a bid again this morning, and the energy exposure keeps earning its keep with crude breaking $100.
Apple's event today, then PPI and Oracle Thursday and the CPI Friday. Enjoy the football tonight. If any of this has you wondering whether your portfolio fits your goals rather than the day's headlines, that's a conversation I'm always glad to have.
Best regards from home,
Dan Sheehan [email protected]
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Market Pulse with Dan Sheehan is a personal market commentary newsletter and is independent from my employer. The content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and reflects my views as of the publication date, which may change without notice. Nothing contained herein should be construed as personalized investment, legal, tax, or financial advice, or as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Any positions discussed represent my own views and may not be suitable for every reader's objectives, financial situation, or risk tolerance. Information is derived from publicly available sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Readers should conduct their own research and consult their own professional advisers before making financial decisions.