New All-Time Highs Validated by "Good Enough" CPI Data

Good Morning Investors,

We’re right where we wanted to be. After urging readers to buy the April dip, both the S&P 500 ($SPY ( ▲ 1.54% )) and Nasdaq ($QQQ ( ▲ 1.54% )) have printed new all-time highs. Tuesday’s CPI was “hot but lighter than feared,” which is exactly the path I outlined on Monday. Tariff pass-through remains patchy, not the inflation shock many predicted, and the market has quickly leaned into a September cut.

Opening Bell: Momentum after a “good enough” CPI

Futures are firmer. Dow futures are up about 0.3% or 136 points, S&P 500 futures are higher by roughly 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures are up about 0.2%. Tuesday’s CPI keeps the September cut in play with odds near 94%. Core CPI rose 0.3% month on month and 3.1% year on year, the strongest monthly core since January, while headline undershot expectations. Services re-accelerated, goods were mixed, and tariff pass-through remains patchy.

Market Framework: New highs, clearer path

The market did what it usually does when macro lands “good enough.” The S&P 500 broke 6,400 for the first time and closed at 6,446, up 1.1%. The Nasdaq added 1.4% to 21,682. Small caps led with the Russell up 3.0%, consistent with a lower-rates path and improving breadth. Traders now price a September cut near 94%, with PPI Thursday and retail sales Friday rounding out the week. Abroad, Japan’s Nikkei set a record as tech strength and trade clarity improved risk appetite.

Technology & AI: Policy complexity, demand intact

The administration confirmed a 15% revenue share on Nvidia’s and AMD’s ($AMD ( ▲ 2.47% )) China AI sales, a hybrid structure that preserves access to Chinese demand while adding policy friction. China is reportedly steering firms away from Nvidia’s ($NVDA ( ▲ 1.72% )) H20 for government-related work, and US authorities are said to be embedding trackers in sensitive chip shipments. Net effect should be back-half weighted as supply chains reset. Pricing power can offset the fee if demand remains tight. My base case on AI infrastructure is unchanged: capacity is still chasing demand.

Corporate Highlights

Spirit Airlines warned it may run out of cash, dropping roughly 40% and underscoring the split between premium travel resilience and budget sensitivity. Circle slipped premarket after announcing a 10 million share sale following its first post-IPO earnings. Cava cut its same-store sales outlook and fell sharply. CoreWeave ($CRWV ( ▲ 3.53% )) beat on revenue but losses widened as operating costs ramped, reminding investors that scaling AI infrastructure is capital intensive.

Crypto Framework: Stablecoin scale, ETH leverage

Crypto picked up fresh tailwinds. Circle beat on revenue and announced a new network initiative, even as shares eased on the follow-on. Bitmine ($BMNR ( ▲ 12.07% )) leaned into the treasury model, planning to sell up to 20 billion dollars of stock to increase ETH holdings and now sits near 1% of circulating ETH with an ambition to reach 5%. Altcoins are firming as Bitcoin dominance eases. I like Ethereum into 5,000 before a consolidation, with Solana as selective beta.

Technical Picture: Strength with a better tone beneath the surface

Breakouts in the indices, leadership from large-cap tech, and the Russell’s breadth thrust argue for trend continuity rather than exhaustion. Defensives bid into CPI, then faded as risk re-engaged. Tesla remains a tactical focal point. A decisive break and hold above 338 would complete a triangle and can invite range expansion.

Today’s Calendar

Analysts’ Notes

Final Thought

This is the market I expected into late summer. April’s panic was an opportunity, not the start of a bear. The CPI path that mattered was the one that allowed the Fed to move while keeping growth intact, and we are on it. I remain constructive on AI leaders where earnings, cash flow, and capacity deployment are visible. In crypto, I like Ethereum for a run toward 5,000, with stablecoin momentum as the backbone, and I see room for altcoins like Solana as Bitcoin dominance eases. Pullbacks should be used to add to operators turning structural change into durable revenue. The next leg is about monetization at scale, not headline-chasing.

It wont be straight up from here, but i do believe we started a new bull market in April, and we will continue to move forward as AI monetization drives the market higher. High earnings expectations, and rate trajectory expected to go lower, it's a good time to be bullish.

Dan Sheehan

[email protected]

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Please consult with your financial advisor about your specific situation.