Good Morning Investors,
Markets are attempting to steady themselves this morning after a bruising Wednesday session that saw tech tumble and macro fears intensify. While UnitedHealth's shock downgrade drove headlines, it's Powell's pointed remarks on tariffs that have reintroduced stagflation whispers into the room. Still, there are green shoots emerging: Netflix is on deck with what could be one of the few tech bright spots, and Taiwan Semiconductor's upbeat outlook is keeping the AI trade alive.
We're also seeing tentative optimism around early-stage U.S.–Japan trade talks and a stabilising yen, which have helped Nikkei bounce and supported sentiment across Asia-Pacific. Oil is up on Iran sanctions. Gold, meanwhile, is off record highs as traders take profit—but the flight to safety narrative remains intact.
The market is closed tomorrow for Good Friday. Today’s session could set the tone for next week, especially with Netflix earnings and housing data due.
BEFORE THE BELL
S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures edged higher Thursday as investors tried to regroup after a brutal Wednesday session. Nvidia is flat premarket after shedding 6.9% yesterday, while Taiwan Semiconductor is helping calm nerves after beating revenue expectations and reiterating a bullish AI outlook. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly is up over 13% on strong weight-loss drug trial data.
Markets remain fragile after Powell’s warning that tariffs could drive inflation higher and potentially force the Fed into a corner, putting its dual mandate under pressure. The Dow, which dropped nearly 700 points on Wednesday, is attempting a recovery, though futures remain volatile.
CORPORATE EARNINGS ROUNDUP
UnitedHealth cut its annual profit forecast, citing a surge in Medicare-related costs. Shares cratered 19% in premarket. The firm now expects EPS of $26 to $26.50, far below the $29.50–$30 prior range. Medical care intensity is running hot and the firm doesn’t expect it to moderate soon.
Taiwan Semiconductor posted a 60% rise in profit and confirmed its full-year AI-driven revenue guidance of 20%–30% growth. TSM is still operating under a 10% tariff regime, but warns it could rise to 32% if Trump’s 90-day pause ends without clarity.
Blackstone delivered an 11% profit jump, citing strength in private equity and credit exits. Inflows remained strong, totaling $61.6 billion. The firm now manages $1.17 trillion.
Eli Lilly saw its orforglipron pill deliver 7.9% weight loss in type 2 diabetics. An oral GLP-1 option could reshape the market. Lilly shares surged premarket as approval filings are planned by year-end.
DEALS & DEVELOPMENTS
Global Payments will acquire Worldpay for $22.7 billion, shaking up the fintech landscape. FIS will in turn buy Global Payments’ Issuer Solutions business in a $13.5 billion counter-move.
Barclays agreed to sell most of its UK payments business to Brookfield, creating a standalone entity with a complex staged ownership structure. Brookfield could ultimately hold 70%.
SpaceX is reportedly a frontrunner for Trump’s "Golden Dome" missile defense contract, alongside two unnamed partners. The multi-billion program is a centerpiece of the administration’s renewed national security strategy.
IN OTHER NEWS
Intel will now require licenses to export certain AI processors to China, following Biden-era rules reinforced by the Trump administration. The firm is proactively notifying customers.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang struck a conciliatory tone during a visit to Beijing, stating China remains "a very important market" despite U.S. restrictions on the H20 AI chip.
Temu and Shein are pulling back digital ad spend across Meta and YouTube as tariff exemptions disappear. Both companies plan price hikes next week to absorb new costs.
Ford is recalling over 148,000 vehicles in two campaigns, with brake fluid leaks being the key concern.
Wipro fell after projecting weaker Q1 sales and warning of heightened uncertainty heading into FY26.
ANALYSTS’ RECOMMENDATIONS
Nvidia: Rosenblatt cuts target to $200 from $220, citing China export ban implications.
Netflix: Piper Sandler initiates at Overweight with $1100 target, calling it a rare Big Tech bright spot.
Abbott Labs: Jefferies lifts target to $137, reaffirming FY25 guidance as a stabilizing signal.
Cognex: Downgraded by Daiwa, citing logistics softness and reshoring delays.
Intuit: Scotiabank upgrades with $700 price target, citing the increasing likelihood of IRS Direct File program shutdown.
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
This week’s volatility reflects a market caught between fear and fundamentals. The tariff storm clouds are not clearing quickly, but they aren’t yet rewriting the macro playbook either. Powell’s caution was warranted — tariffs are inflationary — but his reluctance to cut rates also signals belief in a still-resilient core economy.
My base case remains unchanged: this is a growth scare, not a full-blown recession. The sharp pullback in tech and elevated VIX levels are actually consistent with prior buy zones. If you’ve been following my notes, you’ll know that periods with fewer than 15% of stocks above their 200-day moving average have historically offered attractive long-term entry points. We’re near that threshold now.
The Fed’s discipline should ultimately be bullish — letting inflation pressures pass before stimulating. And with shelter inflation cooling and headline CPI near the Fed’s comfort zone, the second half of 2025 could still bring rate cuts, new tax reform, and renewed confidence.
Until then, volatility will remain our companion. That’s not the same as weakness — it’s the tension of recalibration. Long-term investors should use this window wisely.
Please feel free to reach out to me on LinkedIn or by email if you would like help navigating this market environment or have any planning-related questions.
Dan Sheehan
This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Please consult with your financial advisor about your specific situation.