Market Pulse with Dan Sheehan

Good Morning Investors,

On this final trading day before Memorial Day weekend, we take a moment to honor the men and women who gave their lives in service this country—the freedoms we enjoy today are thanks to their sacrifice.

Markets were relatively muted Thursday, with the S&P 500 down just 0.04%, the Dow flat, and the Nasdaq up 0.28%. Bitcoin, meanwhile, surged to a new all-time high above $111,000—an important milestone we’ll get to later. Investors appear cautious as we head into a long weekend, with the spotlight still fixed on bonds, tariffs, and the progress of Trump’s sweeping tax bill. I won’t have a newsletter Monday due to the holiday closure, so today’s note will serve as a wrap-up and a look ahead.

Before the Bell

Futures sold off hard early Friday after President Trump’s comments recommending a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1 and targeting Apple directly with a 25% levy on foreign-made iPhones. The Dow is down 503 points (1.2%), the S&P 500 is off 1.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures are lower by 1.4%. Bond yields remain in focus after the House passed Trump’s tax bill, which now moves to the Senate. The dollar is on track for its first weekly decline in five weeks, while gold continues its ascent on safe-haven buying. European markets are flat; Japan’s Nikkei managed a gain but posted its first weekly loss in over a month. Oil is modestly higher but heading for a red week on OPEC+ concerns.

Bond Market Watch

As I warned earlier this week, bond markets are once again asserting themselves. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.161% this week—its highest level since 2007—while the 10-year briefly breached 4.6%. Yields retreated slightly on Friday but remain elevated. Investors are clearly worried about the impact of Trump’s $4 trillion tax-and-spending plan, especially with Moody’s downgrade of U.S. credit still fresh in the rearview.

Bonds don’t make headlines until they cause problems—and right now, they’re doing just that. The bid-ask imbalance has grown, and we’re seeing consistent signs that debt issuance is outpacing demand. I still believe a pullback to test the 200-day moving average is on the cards. On the QQQ, that sits around 493. A test and hold there will be critical to sustaining any rally from here.

Trade Watch

Tariff volatility is back. President Trump announced this morning a 25% tariff on Apple iPhones not made in the U.S., sending Apple shares down 3% pre-market. It’s the first major move aimed at a single U.S. company—and underscores what I’ve said previously: this pullback would likely be driven by renewed tariff noise.

Trump also recommended a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1, reintroducing uncertainty into an already fragile trading environment. Companies are now flagging tariffs in their earnings guidance again—Deckers, Ross Stores, and others cited macro uncertainty in their outlooks. This could easily derail the post-April rally if sentiment sours further.

Bitcoin Breakout

Bitcoin powered to another all-time high Thursday, topping $111,878. As I’ve been saying all year, the setup for Bitcoin remains constructive—and today’s price action validates that view. We’re well on the way to my $150,000 target.

Bitcoin’s correlation with global M2 money supply continues to strengthen. With central banks expanding liquidity and governments piling on debt, hard-capped assets like Bitcoin are becoming increasingly attractive. The digital gold narrative is gaining traction, and institutional interest remains high.

Bitcoin is diverging from equities—a sign that it’s becoming a hedge against fiat instability rather than just a risk-on asset. If M2 growth continues and fiscal credibility erodes further, I expect more capital to rotate toward crypto.

Stock Spotlight: Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS)

I’m initiating coverage on Navitas with a Buy. The company’s gallium nitride (GaN) and silicon carbide (SiC) technologies are now powering Nvidia’s new 800V high-voltage data center architecture. That’s a huge endorsement from the biggest name in AI.

The deal enables Nvidia to reduce copper usage—saving money and improving energy efficiency. Navitas' 12kW PSU unit is best-in-class, with 97.8% efficiency. At a $366M market cap, this stock is massively under-the-radar and could rerate quickly. The tech is real, the use case is timely, and Nvidia’s backing adds credibility.

Analyst Recommendations

Closing Thoughts

This week’s action confirms several themes I’ve been flagging: bonds matter again, tariff risks are real, and Bitcoin is finally stepping into its macro hedge role. Equities are still digesting the implications of Trump’s policy mix, and I expect more volatility ahead.

We’re heading into a long weekend with major indices down nearly 2% on the week. If we see a test of the 200-day moving average next week, the reaction will tell us whether this market has true underlying strength, or if we’ve been skating on sentiment alone.

Enjoy the long weekend, stay safe, and thank you again to all who serve and have served.

Dan Sheehan

[email protected]

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Please consult with your financial advisor about your specific situation.