Good Morning Investors,
Monday was one of the wildest sessions in recent memory—no banking crisis, no pandemic, no war. Just tariffs, tweets, and unrelenting volatility. The S&P 500 traded in an astonishing 8% intraday range, swinging from down -4.7% to up +3.4% before closing virtually flat. The Dow saw a 2,595-point round trip—its largest intraday swing in history. Meanwhile, the VIX surged past 60, and trading volume topped 29 billion shares, the highest in at least 18 years.
It wasn’t just volatility—it was disorder. Forced liquidations, algorithmic reversals, and mounting policy uncertainty drove the action. Many are calling it capitulation. I’d say it’s the chaos that often precedes a bottom—but not confirmation we’ve hit one.
BEFORE THE BELL
U.S. stock futures are rebounding modestly this morning as investors take a breather. The Dow Jones is up 820 points (2.2%), with the S&P 500 rising 1.7% and the Nasdaq 100 climbing 1.5%. But let’s be clear: this bounce comes not from clarity, but from exhaustion.
Overnight, China doubled down on its position, vowing to “fight to the end” after President Trump threatened to slap an additional 50% tariff if Beijing follows through with its planned 34% retaliation. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the Chinese move “a big mistake” and claimed the U.S. is holding a superior economic hand. Whether markets agree with that poker metaphor remains to be seen.
European and Asian markets also bounced back slightly after heavy selling. The FTSE 100 and CAC 40 each rose over 1.4%, while Japan’s Nikkei drifted higher after hitting an 18-month low. Gold regained footing, oil hovered near multi-year lows, and safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc remained firm.
MARKET FRAMEWORK
Yesterday’s chaos was a function of positioning more than fundamentals. With the S&P 500 briefly dipping into bear market territory and the Nasdaq already well into one, traders were forced into reaction mode. Whispers of a potential tariff deferral triggered a swift rally—only to be dashed when the White House promptly denied any such plan. In that moment, markets priced in a reprieve that didn’t exist.
Today’s rebound may simply be the result of yesterday’s technical extremes. But make no mistake—risk remains elevated. There’s still no clear resolution on trade policy, and the potential for further shocks is real. Until then, we’re in a trader’s market, not an investor’s one.
That said—investors should not mistake volatility for a reason to stay on the sidelines. History has shown time and again that periods of extreme fear tend to coincide with the best long-term entry points. It rarely feels good in the moment, but this is often when the next decade of returns is quietly seeded. If you’ve got a plan, a time horizon, and the ability to stay calm through the noise—this market is offering opportunities worth considering.
CORPORATE FRAMEWORK
There’s still real business happening beneath the surface. Walgreens beat earnings ahead of its Sycamore Partners deal, and CVS named UPS exec Brian Newman as its new CFO. Broadcom announced a $10 billion buyback, citing strong demand for its AI infrastructure products—particularly as hyperscalers diversify away from Nvidia.
Health insurers rallied after the government boosted Medicare Advantage reimbursement rates for 2026. UnitedHealth, Centene, and CVS all moved higher as the sector emerged as a rare pocket of resilience.
Meanwhile, scrutiny around AI intensified. U.S. senators Warren and Wyden raised antitrust concerns over Microsoft and Google’s partnerships with OpenAI and Anthropic, respectively. In Europe, regulators are closing in on Apple and Meta’s compliance with the Digital Markets Act, while Meta is also rolling out new teen privacy tools amid ongoing safety concerns.
DEAL FLOW & M&A
Infineon’s $2.5 billion acquisition of Marvell’s automotive ethernet unit underscores ongoing consolidation in auto tech. Elsewhere, the Paramount-Skydance merger deal received a 90-day extension as regulatory hurdles loom.
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
Markets are exhausted but not resolved. This is still a policy-induced storm, not a fundamental economic breakdown—but if the headlines escalate without intervention, fundamentals may catch up.
Investors should tread carefully. Discipline, not drama, is what works in markets like this. Panic rarely pays. If you’re worried about your allocation, revisit your plan—don’t rewrite it in a moment of fear. And if you don’t have a plan, or want help crafting one built to weather markets like this, I’d be glad to talk.
Please feel free to reach out to me on LinkedIn or by email if you would like help navigating this market environment or have any planning-related questions.
Dan Sheehan
This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Please consult with your financial advisor about your specific situation.