Good Morning Investors,
We’re coming off one of the most volatile stretches in modern market history—and not because of a credit crisis, a pandemic, or an unexpected geopolitical shock. No, what we’re living through is a self-inflicted policy earthquake. Tuesday’s session was chaotic by any standard: the S&P 500 traded in an 8-point intraday range, the Dow swung 2,595 points peak to trough, and nearly 29 billion shares changed hands—the highest volume since the depths of the financial crisis.
What followed wasn’t calm. It was confirmation.
This morning, President Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs officially took effect. The numbers are staggering: 104% on a broad swath of Chinese goods, with threats of more to come. Beijing has responded forcefully, slapping an 84% counter-duty on U.S. imports, and the European Union has now signaled it won’t sit idle. The administration calls this “strategic pressure.” The markets are calling it what it is: a trade war in full swing.
This isn’t jawboning. This is policy. And it’s rewriting the rules in real time.
BEFORE THE BELL
Futures are sharply in the red again. The Dow is down nearly 800 points in premarket trading, the S&P is off close to 2%, and the Nasdaq is tracking a 1.6% decline. Bonds are swinging like a pendulum—the 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.34% after dropping as low as 3.87% just two days ago. The 30-year yield is now pressing toward 4.9%, marking its highest level since the early COVID era.
Global equity markets are echoing the U.S. pain. Europe is firmly lower, with healthcare and consumer discretionary names leading declines. Japan’s Nikkei continued its retreat, while mainland China managed modest gains—thanks almost entirely to state-directed buying in key tech names. Oil prices have extended their losing streak to a fifth straight session. Gold, unsurprisingly, is catching a bid as safe-haven flows build. And the dollar, once a shelter, is now sliding against the yen and franc.
MARKET FRAMEWORK
Let’s call this what it is: a regime change. The idea that these tariffs were mere negotiating tactics has been thoroughly debunked. The administration has moved past rhetoric into implementation. The consequences are no longer theoretical—they are tangible, with supply chains, profit forecasts, and investor confidence being recalibrated by the hour.
Corporate America is reacting. Delta is warning of a slowdown in travel demand. Walmart pulled its full-year guidance. The Treasury market is behaving as if major foreign holders—particularly those in Asia—are lightening their exposure. And the Fed, which enters today’s narrative with the release of its March meeting minutes, is now squarely in the middle of a renewed stagflation debate. Inflation expectations are creeping higher even as growth indicators wobble.
We’ve been here before—not in precise detail, but in emotional texture. The kind of grinding, disorienting stress that doesn’t come from a single blow, but from a series of rolling policy shocks that wear investors down.
INVESTOR MINDSET
I said yesterday that this kind of chop is often what’s needed to form a durable bottom. Markets don’t reverse when headlines get better—they tend to turn when positioning becomes extreme, sentiment reaches exhaustion, and sellers are simply spent.
That’s where we’re heading. Not necessarily to a rally today or tomorrow—but to the kind of asymmetric opportunity that history has consistently offered to long-term investors during moments of peak uncertainty. March 2009. April 2020. Even as far back as October 1987. What all those periods had in common wasn’t clarity—they had capitulation. They had forced selling. And they had the kind of fear that creates space for outsized forward returns.
Right now, the emotional backdrop is raw. But if you’re thinking beyond this quarter—or this election cycle—it’s precisely in these environments where long-term wealth is quietly compounded. Not through blind risk-taking, but through strategic discipline.
PORTFOLIO POSITIONING
This remains a minefield for reactive capital. But for investors with a plan—especially those who’ve rotated defensively or are sitting on excess cash—this is the kind of market that deserves close attention.
I'm not advocating “hero trades” or trying to call a bottom. What I am advocating is process. Clarity on goals. A plan for rebalancing into weakness. A commitment to quality. These are the inputs that make sure fear doesn’t make your decisions for you.
What stands out in this environment are the pockets of resilience—companies with pricing power, clean balance sheets, and exposure to long-term structural themes like AI, automation, and healthcare transformation. These businesses don’t become worse companies because markets are under stress. In many cases, they become mispriced opportunities.
FED WATCH & POLICY PATH
Today’s Fed minutes will predate this escalation—but they still matter. We’ll get a read on how central bankers were thinking about growth, inflation, and financial conditions in early March, before the tariff spike. That sets the stage for tomorrow’s CPI report, which may be the more consequential print now. If inflation shows signs of cooling, it could temper the bond market’s more aggressive moves and provide a foothold for equities.
That said, the key issue here isn’t inflation per se—it’s confidence. Confidence in policy direction. Confidence in diplomacy. Confidence that the world’s two largest economies aren’t about to entrench into opposing blocs. Until that settles, expect volatility to remain embedded in the system.
CLOSING THOUGHT
We are in a policy-induced dislocation, not a financial collapse. The fear is warranted. But so is the discipline to see it clearly. For investors who can stay focused on the fundamentals—on what they own and why they own it—this may turn out to be one of those rare moments where courage is rewarded long after the noise fades.
If you’re uncertain about how your current portfolio is positioned, or if you want to stress test your plan under more challenging assumptions, I’d be glad to help. These are the conversations that matter most in moments like this.
Let’s stay grounded. Let’s stay prepared.
Please feel free to reach out to me on LinkedIn or by email if you would like help navigating this market environment or have any planning-related questions.
Dan Sheehan
This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Please consult with your financial advisor about your specific situation.